Angers
Angers
AJ Auxerre
AJ Auxerre
Brest logo
Brest logo
Le Havre
Le Havre
Lens logo
Lens logo
Lille
Lille
Lyon
Lyon
Marseille
Marseille
Monaco
Monaco
Montpellier
Montpellier
Nantes
Nantes
Nice
Nice
PSG logo
PSG logo
Reims
Reims
Rennes
Rennes
Saint-Etienne
Saint-Etienne
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
Toulouse
Toulouse
Ligue 1 header desktop

Ligue 1

Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 31
Apr 27, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Brest logo

Marseille
4 - 1
Brest

Gouiri (8', 45', 63'), Greenwood (37')
Murillo (41')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Sima (25')
Ajorque (36'), Chardonnet (71'), Le Cardinal (88'), Lees-Melou (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Brest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Last Game: Marseille 5-1 Montpellier
Saturday, April 19 at 8.05pm in Ligue 1

Brest

All competitions
Last Game: Brest 1-3 Lens
Sunday, April 20 at 4.15pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 66.88%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Brest had a probability of 15.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 1-0 (7.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Brest win it was 1-2 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawBrest
66.88% (-0.276 -0.28)18.12% (0.102 0.1)15.01% (0.174 0.17)
Both teams to score 58.38% (0.073 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.96% (-0.116 -0.12)34.04% (0.116 0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.08% (-0.13200000000001 -0.13)55.91% (0.131 0.13)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.57% (-0.097000000000008 -0.1)9.42% (0.096 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.32% (-0.22500000000001 -0.23)31.68% (0.226 0.23)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.45% (0.148 0.15)35.55% (-0.149 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.69% (0.153 0.15)72.31% (-0.15300000000001 -0.15)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 66.88%
    Brest 15.01%
    Draw 18.12%
MarseilleDrawBrest
2-1 @ 9.66% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.34% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
1-0 @ 7.91% (0.013 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.61% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-0 @ 7.36% (-0.051 -0.05)
4-1 @ 4.49% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-0 @ 4.34% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.94% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 2.32% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-1 @ 2.12% (-0.024 -0.02)
5-0 @ 2.05% (-0.033 -0.03)
5-2 @ 1.1% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 4.62%
Total : 66.88%
1-1 @ 8.18% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
2-2 @ 5% (0.027 0.03)
0-0 @ 3.35% (0.02 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.36% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 18.12%
1-2 @ 4.23% (0.041 0.04)
0-1 @ 3.46% (0.034 0.03)
0-2 @ 1.79% (0.026 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.72% (0.016 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.46% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 15.01%

How you voted: Marseille vs Brest

Marseille
76.5%
Draw
20.6%
Brest
2.9%
34
Head to Head
Aug 17, 2024 4pm
Gameweek 1
Brest
1-5
Marseille
Camara (45+6')
Pereira Lage (16'), Martin (31'), Lala (45+1'), Amavi (74')
Greenwood (3', 31'), Henrique (26', 48'), Wahi (69' pen.)
Cornelius (7')
> Preview
Feb 18, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 22
Brest
1-0
Marseille
Lees-Melou (88')
Lala (12'), Chardonnet (35'), Le Cardinal (90+6')
Mounie (60')

Balerdi (49')
> Preview
Aug 26, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 3
Marseille
2-0
Brest
Mbemba (4'), Sarr (65')

Satriano (73')
> Preview
May 27, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 37
Marseille
1-2
Brest
Mbemba (75')
Veretout (63'), Balerdi (87')
Magnetti (57'), Camara (81')
Chardonnet (67'), Lala (90+2')
> Preview
Aug 14, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 2
Brest
1-1
Marseille
Lees-Melou (61')
Der Zakarian (29'), Belaili (51')
Tavares (38')
Milik (17'), Gerson (57'), Rongier (65'), Guendouzi (74')
> Preview