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Nottingham Forest logo
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 11, 2025 at 3pm UK
The City Ground
Luton Town

Nott'm Forest
2 - 0
Luton

Yates (40'), Sosa (68')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Nottingham Forest and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wolves 0-3 Nott'm Forest
Monday, January 6 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: QPR 2-1 Luton
Monday, January 6 at 8pm in Championship

We said: Nottingham Forest 2-0 Luton Town

It will be fascinating to see whether Santo opts to go strong or rotate his resources for the visit of Luton, but regardless of what team Forest field, Luton should be heading home disappointed. The Hatters are in disarray on the field, and even if Trollope and Kyle can provide any sort of new manager bounce, the Premier League surprise package should enjoy safe passage into round four. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 30.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Nottingham Forest in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Nottingham Forest.

Result
Nottingham ForestDrawLuton Town
44.1% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06) 25.51% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01) 30.39% (0.061 0.06)
Both teams to score 54.2% (0.052 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.51% (0.052 0.05)49.48% (-0.056000000000004 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.48% (0.045999999999999 0.05)71.52% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)
Nottingham Forest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.61% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)22.39% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.11% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)55.89% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.83% (0.069999999999993 0.07)30.17% (-0.071999999999999 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.68% (0.082999999999998 0.08)66.32% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Score Analysis
    Nottingham Forest 44.09%
    Luton Town 30.39%
    Draw 25.51%
Nottingham ForestDrawLuton Town
1-0 @ 10.1% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.07% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
2-0 @ 7.57% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.52% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-0 @ 3.77% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.71% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.69% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.41% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.01% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 44.09%
1-1 @ 12.11%
0-0 @ 6.75% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.43% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.08% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.51%
0-1 @ 8.09% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-2 @ 7.26% (0.011 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.85% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.9% (0.01 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.17% (0.008 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.94% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.18%
Total : 30.39%

How you voted: Nott'm Forest vs Luton

Nottingham Forest
92.4%
Luton Town
7.6%
79
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 29
Luton
1-1
Nott'm Forest
Berry (89')
Kabore (30')
Wood (34')
Toffolo (84'), Sels (90')
Oct 21, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 9
Nott'm Forest
2-2
Luton
Wood (48', 76')
Sangare (60'), Gibbs-White (82'), Murillo (90+8')
Ogbene (83'), Adebayo (90+2')
Apr 15, 2022 12.30pm
Gameweek 42
Luton
1-0
Nott'm Forest
Naismith (37' pen.)
Bradley (26'), Naismith (49'), Onyedinma (56'), Burke (63'), Campbell (63'), Shea (69'), Adebayo (90+3')
Bradley (77')

Garner (44'), Davis (63'), Worrall (74'), Figueiredo (90+6')
Nov 23, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
Nott'm Forest
0-0
Luton
Taylor (26'), Colback (47'), McKenna (55')
Colback (61')
Lockyer (45+1'), Ruddock (68'), Bradley (90+3')
Mar 2, 2021 7.45pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLiverpool36258383374683
2Arsenal371914467333471
3Newcastle UnitedNewcastle372061168462266
4Chelsea37199963432066
5Aston Villa3719995849966
6Manchester CityMan City36198967432465
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest371981058451365
8Brentford37167146556955
9Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton36141395956355
10Fulham37159135452254
11Bournemouth3614111155431253
12Crystal Palace361213114648-249
13Everton371015124144-345
14Wolverhampton WanderersWolves36125195164-1341
15West Ham UnitedWest Ham371010174361-1840
16Manchester UnitedMan Utd37109184254-1239
17Tottenham HotspurSpurs37115216361238
RLeicester CityLeicester3767243378-4525
RIpswich TownIpswich37410233579-4422
RSouthampton3726292584-5912


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