Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Porteno win with a probability of 48.78%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Monagas had a probability of 25.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Porteno win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Monagas win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Porteno would win this match.