Sporting Gijon and Valencia will be attempting to reach the Copa del Rey quarter-finals on Wednesday when they square off at Estadio El Molinon.
While Valencia sit in 12th position in the La Liga table, the home side currently occupy 15th place in the second tier.
Match preview
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When Gennaro Gattuso arrived at Valencia in the summer, there was optimism that he could spearhead a return to European football for Los Che.
However, just one win from eight games in La Liga has left Valencia more concerned with avoiding a relegation battle, the current gap to the bottom three standing at four points.
Gattuso's side have also suffered back-to-back defeats in the league, going down 2-1 to Villarreal before succumbing to a 1-0 defeat against lowly Cadiz on January 6.
That was a particularly damaging defeat for Valencia who must now turn their attention to this competition in a bid to kick-start their campaign since the resumption.
Valencia made light work of minnows La Nucia in the previous round, running out 3-0 victors courtesy of goals from Justin Kluivert, Ilaix Moriba and Hugo Duro.
Few would have expected Sporting Gijon to reach the last 16 of this competition when they were paired with an impressive Rayo Vallecano outfit in the previous round.
Nevertheless, two goals from Uros Milovanovic secured his team an eye-catching victory over opponents who are currently in ninth in La Liga.
The result was in sharp contrast to Sporting Gijon's league form with just one win being posted in 12 games, leaving the club just three points above the second tier relegation zone.
Although Abelardo has lost just eight of his 30 games in charge, he may require another victory over top-flight opposition to ensure that he does not come under pressure to keep his job in the dugout.
Team News
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Abelardo could tinker with his Sporting Gijon side having made two first-half substitutions on the back of his team going 2-0 down to Racing Santander after 24 minutes.
Sporting Gijon did not concede for the remainder of the contest, leaving the possibility of Christian Rivera replacing Bruno Gonzalez if Abelardo opts to switch to a three-player midfield.
Giovanni Zarfino and Jony are also pushing for inclusion, although Abelardo may be against making widespread changes for a tie of this magnitude.
Having witnessed Valencia push Real Madrid all the way in the Supercopa de Espana, Gattuso will give consideration to selecting the same starting lineup.
Toni Lato was used further down the left flank than usual, playing in front of Jose Gaya, and he may drop out for a more recognised option, or for Gattuso to recall Moriba and switch to a three-man midfield.
Duro could also take the spot of Edinson Cavani, who came through 120 minutes versus Real Madrid and may be rested.
Sporting Gijon possible starting lineup:
Cuellar; Rosas, Insua, Gragera, Sanchez; Rivera, Diaz, Martin; Garcia, Milovanovic, Otera
Valencia possible starting lineup:
Mamardashvili; Correia, Comert, Ozkacar, Gaya; Moriba, Almeida, Musah; Kluivert, Duro, Lino
We say: Sporting Gijon 1-2 Valencia
Having managed to overcome Rayo Vallecano in the previous round, Sporting Gijon will have every confidence that they can cause another upset. However, we are backing Valencia to bounce back from their recent poor form to give their campaign the injection of encouragement that it requires.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 37.6%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 35.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 (10.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.
