Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 58.31%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 18.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.17%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
