St Pauli could secure Bundesliga survival on Saturday at Millerntor-Stadion, but they will have to avoid defeat against visitors Stuttgart to have a chance.
The hosts are in 14th place with 31 points and are six points ahead of the 16th-placed relegation playoff spot with three games left to play, while Stuttgart are in 11th place with 41 points and their hopes of European football all but ended after losing 1-0 against Heidenheim on April 26.
Match preview
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St Pauli managed to hold Werder Bremen, who had won their prior four games, to a goalless stalemate on April 27 and restricted them to just one big chance.
The clean sheet was the club's first in five games, though it should be noted that they boast the third-best defensive record in the entire division having only conceded 36 times in the top flight this term.
Boss Alexander Blessin's side will be guaranteed safety if they win and 16th-placed Heidenheim fail to beat last-placed VfL Bochum on Friday, but their status as a Bundesliga team will also be secured if they avoid defeat and Heidenheim lose.
Kiezkicker are unbeaten in four matches – drawing three and winning one – and their only loss in their last seven was a narrow 3-2 defeat against champions-elect Bayern Munich on March 29.
St Pauli are also undefeated in their past three home outings, emerging triumphant once in that period, but they did lose seven and draw three of their previous 12 at Millerntor-Stadion.
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Visitors Stuttgart dominated most attacking metrics against Heidenheim, creating nearly two xG and two big chances while preventing their opponents from generating any shots on target from inside the box.
Head coach Sebastian Hoeness will be alarmed by his team's frailty at the back, with his side conceding seven goals in their past three matches despite only facing just over three xG in that time.
Die Roten lost 1-0 against St Pauli in the reverse fixture on December 21, though they did win six of their previous seven clashes against their hosts.
Stuttgart's Bundesliga form is concerning given they have only claimed all three points in one of their 10 most recent league matches, suffering six defeats.
Hoeness's side have at least proven more resilient away from home having drawn three, won one and lost just one of their last five on the road.
Team News
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St Pauli midfielder Conor Metcalfe was sent off against Werder Bremen, and he will join Jackson Irvine and James Sands on the sidelines.
Carlo Boukhalfa and Eric Smith played together in the middle of the pitch last time out, and they may be trusted to start behind forwards Noah Weisshaupt, Morgan Guilavogui and Danel Sinani on Saturday, though attacker Simon Zoller is injured.
With centre-back Karol Mets and goalkeeper Sascha Burchert still recovering from injuries, shot-stopper Nikola Vasilj may be fielded behind central defenders David Nemeth, Hauke Wahl and Siebe Van der Heyden.
Opponents Stuttgart will be without forwards El Bilal Toure and Justin Diehl, so perhaps Nick Woltemade and Ermedin Demirovic will be paired together in a front two.
In midfield, Enzo Millot is not scheduled to return until the middle of the month, and his injury could see Hoeness start Atakan Karazor and Angelo Stiller against St Pauli.
Considering centre-back Dan-Axel Zagadou has been ruled out, Finn Jeltsch and Julian Chabot can be expected to feature in the heart of defence.
St Pauli possible starting lineup:
Vasilj; Nemeth, Wahl, Van der Heyden; Saliakas, Boukhalfa, Smith, Treu; Weisshaupt, Guilavogui; Sinani
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Stergiou, Jeltsch, Chabot, Mittelstadt; Leweling, Karazor, Stiller, Fuhrich; Woltemade, Demirovic
We say: St Pauli 2-1 Stuttgart
While St Pauli have struggled to prevent their opponents from scoring in recent weeks, their overall defensive record is outstanding.
Stuttgart's form in the Bundesliga has been poor, and they may encounter difficulties against the hosts' stubborn back three.
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Lewis Nolan
