Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 43.07%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Ternana win was 0-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SPAL would win this match.
