

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 37.52%. A win for Braga had a probability of 36.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-0 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 36.81% ( | 25.66% ( | 37.52% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.4% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.32% ( | 48.68% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.2% ( | 70.79% ( |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.23% ( | 25.76% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.29% ( | 60.71% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.63% ( | 25.37% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.83% ( | 60.16% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 8.86% ( 2-1 @ 8.24% ( 2-0 @ 6.01% ( 3-1 @ 3.73% ( 3-0 @ 2.72% ( 3-2 @ 2.56% ( 4-1 @ 1.26% ( 4-0 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 2.51% Total : 36.81% | 1-1 @ 12.15% ( 0-0 @ 6.54% ( 2-2 @ 5.65% ( 3-3 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.66% | 0-1 @ 8.97% ( 1-2 @ 8.34% ( 0-2 @ 6.15% ( 1-3 @ 3.81% ( 0-3 @ 2.81% ( 2-3 @ 2.59% ( 1-4 @ 1.31% ( 0-4 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 2.59% Total : 37.52% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Porto | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Braga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | PortimonensePortimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | ChavesChaves | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 7 |
| 15 | Vizela | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | AroucaArouca | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 4 |
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