

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 47.51%. A win for Braga had a probability of 27.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Braga win was 0-1 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Braga |
| 47.51% ( | 24.94% ( | 27.55% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.25% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.42% ( | 48.58% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.29% ( | 70.7% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.51% ( | 20.49% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.03% ( | 52.97% ( |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.23% ( | 31.77% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.8% ( | 68.2% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 10.31% ( 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 2-0 @ 8.18% ( 3-1 @ 4.96% ( 3-0 @ 4.32% ( 3-2 @ 2.84% ( 4-1 @ 1.97% ( 4-0 @ 1.71% ( 4-2 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 2.71% Total : 47.5% | 1-1 @ 11.83% ( 0-0 @ 6.51% ( 2-2 @ 5.38% ( 3-3 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.93% | 0-1 @ 7.46% ( 1-2 @ 6.78% ( 0-2 @ 4.28% ( 1-3 @ 2.59% ( 2-3 @ 2.06% ( 0-3 @ 1.64% ( Other @ 2.74% Total : 27.55% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | BoavistaBoavista | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Porto | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Benfica | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Braga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Vizela | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Estrela Amadora | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | SC FarenseFarense | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | PortimonensePortimonense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
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