Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 79.85%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 6.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.9%) and 1-0 (10.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.48%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (2.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ipswich Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ipswich Town | Draw | Morecambe |
| 79.85% ( | 13.65% ( | 6.5% ( |
| Both teams to score 41.54% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.28% ( | 38.72% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.97% ( | 61.03% ( |
| Ipswich Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.33% ( | 7.67% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 72.62% ( | 27.38% ( |
| Morecambe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.99% ( | 55% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 12.12% ( | 87.88% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Ipswich Town | Draw | Morecambe |
| 2-0 @ 13.91% ( 3-0 @ 11.9% ( 1-0 @ 10.83% 2-1 @ 8.32% ( 4-0 @ 7.64% ( 3-1 @ 7.12% ( 4-1 @ 4.57% ( 5-0 @ 3.92% ( 5-1 @ 2.35% 3-2 @ 2.13% ( 6-0 @ 1.68% ( 4-2 @ 1.37% ( 6-1 @ 1% Other @ 3.12% Total : 79.84% | 1-1 @ 6.48% ( 0-0 @ 4.22% ( 2-2 @ 2.49% ( Other @ 0.47% Total : 13.65% | 0-1 @ 2.52% ( 1-2 @ 1.94% ( Other @ 2.04% Total : 6.5% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 33 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 60 | 22 | 38 | 74 |
| 2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 71 |
| 3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 34 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 65 | 31 | 34 | 66 |
| 4 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 28 | 23 | 63 |
| 5 | Derby CountyDerby | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 55 | 31 | 24 | 61 |
| 6 | Barnsley | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 60 |
| 7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 54 |
| 8 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 52 |
| 9 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 53 | 41 | 12 | 51 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 51 |
| 11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 33 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 44 |
| 12 | Exeter CityExeter | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 45 | 44 | 1 | 43 |
| 13 | Port Vale | 35 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 43 |
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 42 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 42 |
| 16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 41 |
| 17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 35 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 36 |
| 18 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 36 |
| 19 | Burton Albion | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 35 |
| 20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 28 | 48 | -20 | 34 |
| 21 | Morecambe | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 32 |
| 22 | MK Dons | 35 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 31 | 54 | -23 | 30 |
| 23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 29 |
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 35 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 23 |
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