Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 49.95%. A win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 25.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Forest Green Rovers win was 0-1 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barnsley | Draw | Forest Green Rovers | 
| 49.95% (  -0.11) | 24.41% (  0.04) | 25.64% (  0.07) | 
| Both teams to score 54.29% (  -0.05) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 52.25% (  -0.1) | 47.75% (  0.1) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 30.06% (  -0.1) | 69.95% (  0.09) | 
| Barnsley Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 80.85% (  -0.09) | 19.15% (  0.09) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.2% (  -0.14) | 50.8% (  0.14) | 
| Forest Green Rovers Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 67.15% (  0.01) | 32.85% (  -0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.58% (  0.01) | 69.42% (  -0.01) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Barnsley | Draw | Forest Green Rovers | 
| 1-0 @ 10.39% (  0.01) 2-1 @ 9.57% (  -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.59% (  -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.27% (  -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.73% (  -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.93% (  -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.18% (  -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.96% (  -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.21% (  -0.01) Other @ 3.11% Total : 49.94% | 1-1 @ 11.57% (  0.02) 0-0 @ 6.29% (  0.03) 2-2 @ 5.33% (  -0) 3-3 @ 1.09% (  -0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.41% | 0-1 @ 7% (  0.03) 1-2 @ 6.44% (  0.01) 0-2 @ 3.9% (  0.02) 1-3 @ 2.39% (  0) 2-3 @ 1.98% (  -0) 0-3 @ 1.45% (  0.01) Other @ 2.48% Total : 25.64% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 41 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 71 | 44 | 27 | 86 | 
| 2 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 41 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 85 | 32 | 53 | 85 | 
| 3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 42 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 73 | 35 | 38 | 84 | 
| 4 | Barnsley | 41 | 25 | 6 | 10 | 74 | 38 | 36 | 81 | 
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 41 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 55 | 32 | 23 | 71 | 
| 6 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 42 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 70 | 
| 7 | Derby CountyDerby | 42 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 69 | 
| 8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 42 | 19 | 8 | 15 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 65 | 
| 9 | Portsmouth | 42 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 56 | 46 | 10 | 64 | 
| 10 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 41 | 16 | 8 | 17 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 56 | 
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 42 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 62 | 59 | 3 | 55 | 
| 12 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 41 | 12 | 19 | 10 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 55 | 
| 13 | Exeter CityExeter | 42 | 14 | 11 | 17 | 59 | 56 | 3 | 53 | 
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 42 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 53 | 
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 40 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 54 | 62 | -8 | 52 | 
| 16 | Burton Albion | 40 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 54 | 76 | -22 | 48 | 
| 17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 42 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 47 | 
| 18 | Port Vale | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 46 | 
| 19 | MK Dons | 42 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 40 | 60 | -20 | 43 | 
| 20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 41 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 40 | 
| 21 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 41 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 35 | 61 | -26 | 40 | 
| 22 | Morecambe | 43 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 39 | 71 | -32 | 38 | 
| 23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 41 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 38 | 
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 42 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 81 | -51 | 26 | 
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