Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 58.46%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 19.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.87%) and 2-0 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.23%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 1-2 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peterborough United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Peterborough United | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
| 58.46% ( | 21.78% ( | 19.76% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.31% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.24% ( | 42.76% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.84% ( | 65.16% ( |
| Peterborough United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.68% ( | 14.33% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.84% ( | 42.16% ( |
| Forest Green Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.56% ( | 35.44% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.8% ( | 72.21% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Peterborough United | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% 1-0 @ 9.87% ( 2-0 @ 9.59% 3-1 @ 6.44% ( 3-0 @ 6.21% ( 3-2 @ 3.34% ( 4-1 @ 3.13% ( 4-0 @ 3.02% ( 4-2 @ 1.62% ( 5-1 @ 1.22% ( 5-0 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 2.93% Total : 58.46% | 1-1 @ 10.23% ( 2-2 @ 5.16% ( 0-0 @ 5.08% ( 3-3 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.78% | 1-2 @ 5.31% ( 0-1 @ 5.27% ( 0-2 @ 2.73% ( 1-3 @ 1.84% ( 2-3 @ 1.78% 0-3 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 1.89% Total : 19.76% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 51 | 29 | 22 | 61 |
| 2 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 27 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 47 | 18 | 29 | 58 |
| 3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 53 | 28 | 25 | 54 |
| 4 | Derby CountyDerby | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 50 |
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 37 | 23 | 14 | 50 |
| 6 | Barnsley | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 46 |
| 7 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 27 | 8 | 41 |
| 9 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 41 |
| 10 | Exeter CityExeter | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 38 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 37 |
| 12 | Bristol Rovers | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 37 |
| 13 | Port Vale | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 36 |
| 14 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 34 |
| 16 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 26 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 31 |
| 17 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 29 |
| 18 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 29 |
| 19 | Morecambe | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 27 |
| 20 | MK Dons | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 25 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 25 |
| 22 | Burton Albion | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 25 |
| 23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 25 |
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 55 | -31 | 21 |
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