A win for Borussia Dortmund away from home against Hoffenheim on Saturday in the Bundesliga at PreZero Arena would significantly boost their chances of securing European football.
Hoffenheim are in 15th place with 30 points and may need just one more win to guarantee top-flight survival, but seventh-placed Dortmund will prove to be challenging opponents, and the visitors have 45 points following their 3-2 victory against Borussia Monchengladbach on April 20.
Match preview
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The hosts suffered a 3-2 defeat at the hands of Freiburg on April 19, and they will be disappointed to have conceded Lucas Holer's 57th-minute winner after having fought back in first-half stoppage time to overturn Freiburg's two-goal lead.
Hoffenheim have netted four times in their last two matches, scoring as many goals in that period as they had in their prior five, though it should be said that they have conceded on six occasions in their three most recent outings.
With four games left to play for all 18 Bundesliga clubs, boss Christian Ilzer will help secure safety for his side if they beat Dortmund and if Stuttgart win on Friday against 16th-placed Heidenheim, who are eight points behind in the division's 16th-placed relegation playoff spot.
Hoffenheim have been beaten in three of their past six, with their only victory in that time coming against Mainz 05 on April 12.
Die Kraichgauer are undefeated in four home games, but while they achieved victory in their most recent outing at PreZero Arena on April 4 against Mainz, they drew six and lost four of their prior 10 on home turf.
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As for Dortmund, they only created one big chance in their clash against Borussia Monchengladbach but scored three before half time, though they should be credited for only facing one big chance themselves.
BVB have been impressive in front of goal, with the club finding the back of the net 12 times in their last four Bundesliga games, but they also conceded six goals in those fixtures.
Head coach Niko Kovac's team are just two points from sixth-placed Mainz 05 and three points from fifth-placed Freiburg, who occupy the Bundesliga's Conference League and Europa League spots respectively.
The visitors were held to a 1-1 stalemate by Hoffenheim in the reverse fixture on December 15, a game in which BVB produced just 0.5 xG.
Kovac's team are in fine form having triumphed in four of their six most recent matches – losing once – and they are also unbeaten in their past four in the Bundesliga, winning three times.
Dortmund managed to hold Bayern Munich to a 2-2 draw in their last away match on April 12, but they lost four and won three of their previous seven on the road.
Team News
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Hoffenheim will not be able to call upon suspended midfielder Tom Bischof, while Diadie Samassekou and Grischa Promel are injured, so perhaps Anton Stach will be partnered by Dennis Geiger.
Arthur Chaves, Kevin Akpoguma and Stanley N'Soki started against Freiburg as centre-backs, and they may be stationed in defence once again given Ozan Kabak, Valentin Gendrey and Christopher Lenz will not be in the XI.
With striker Ihlas Bebou not scheduled to return until the middle of May, Haris Tabakovic is the most likely candidate to lead the line.
Dortmund have suffered a setback with news that midfielder Pascal Gross is set to miss the rest of the season, and his absence may lead Kovac to start Carney Chukwuemeka and Felix Nmecha in the middle of the pitch.
Attacker Maximilian Beier's ankle injury could see Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi play behind striker Serhou Guirassy.
Waldemar Anton, Emre Can, Ramy Bensebaini could feature in a back three considering Nico Schlotterbeck's meniscus injury may keep him sidelined until early October.
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Chaves, Akpoguma, N'Soki; Kaderabek, Stach, Geiger, Bulter; Toure, Kramaric; Tabakovic
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Anton, Can, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Chukwuemeka, Nmecha, Svensson; Brandt, Adeyemi; Guirassy
We say: Hoffenheim 1-3 Borussia Dortmund
Hoffenheim will likely struggle to keep Dortmund at bay, and they could find it difficult to get back into a winning position should they concede first.
It would not be surprising if the visitors scored more than once, and given Hoffenheim's poor record at home, BVB will be confident of claiming all three points.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
