With the race for Champions League football approaching its final stages, visitors Mainz 05 will face strugglers Hoffenheim on Saturday at PreZero Arena in the Bundesliga.
The hosts are fifth last in 14th place with 27 points and only five points above the division's 16th-placed relegation playoff spot, whereas Mainz are fourth with 46 points but were held to a 1-1 draw by last-placed Holstein Kiel last Saturday.
Match preview
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Hoffenheim lost 3-1 against RB Leipzig on April 5 despite scoring first after 11 minutes, but they had little chance of victory once centre-back Leo Ostigard was sent off just before the half-hour mark when the score was 1-1.
The home side conceded more than once for the first time in seven matches, though their overall record of 52 goals conceded in the Bundesliga makes them the fourth worst defensive team in the bottom eight.
Head coach Christian Ilzer's team suffered a 2-0 defeat in the reverse fixture against Mainz on December 1, and his side are in fact winless in their last five clashes against the visitors, losing three times.
Die Kraichgauer have failed to win any of their past four matches – drawing two – and they only found the back of the net on three occasions in that period.
The hosts have not found success at PreZero Arena for some time given they have not triumphed at home for 10 games, succumbing to defeat four times.
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Opponents Mainz were arguably fortunate to have only conceded once against Holstein Kiel given they produced several chances from near the six-yard box, while also striking the post.
Boss Bo Henriksen will be concerned that the club have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five games, conceding six times in their past three.
Karnevalsverein occupy the final Champions League qualification spot but are only one point ahead of fourth-placed RB Leipzig, while just four points separate them from seventh-placed Freiburg.
Though Mainz have lost once and been held to stalemates in two of their three most recent outings, they did achieve victory in each of their prior four games.
The visitors lost 3-1 against Borussia Dortmund on March 30 in their last away match, but they triumphed in their previous three on the road.
Team News
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Ostigard joins injured Hoffenheim centre-backs Ozan Kabak and Christopher Lenz on the sidelines, but Arthur Chaves and Kevin Akpoguma are available.
With midfielders Grischa Promel, Diadie Samassekou and Alexander Prass having been ruled out, expect Anton Stach and Tom Bischof to start in a double pivot.
Up front, Gift Orban may be trusted to lead the line given Ihlas Bebou will not return to the pitch until late April.
Most of Mainz's first-choice XI will be ready for Saturday's clash, though centre-back Danny da Costa is a doubt, while Stefan Bell is set to miss out due to a hamstring injury.
Perhaps Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Moritz Jenz and Dominik Kohr will be chosen in a back three to protect goalkeeper Robin Zentner.
Though midfielder Kaishu Sano will almost certainly start against Hoffenheim, his usual partner Nadiem Amiri is injured, and his absence may lead to Lennard Maloney being selected.
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Gendrey, Chaves, Akpoguma, Nsoki; Stach, Bischof; Toure, Kramaric, Bulter; Orban
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Hanche-Olsen, Jenz, Kohr; Caci, Sano, Maloney, Mwene; Nebel, Lee; Burkardt
We say: Hoffenheim 1-2 Mainz 05
Though Mainz are in poor form, they have not often experienced defeat in recent weeks, and their away record is strong.
Hoffenheim have also struggled for positive results, and considering their subpar record against the visitors, they may suffer yet another loss on Saturday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
