We said: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Groningen
Saturday's defeat was a setback for Groningen, but they have been difficult to beat in recent months and AZ will not need telling how dangerous they can be having already lost to them once this season.
That said, the hosts come into this match in flying form and they should have enough to continue their winning run, although it is unlikely to be straightforward for them.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 75.43%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 9.42%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.73%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.1%), while for a Groningen win it was 1-2 (2.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
