Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.25%) and 2-1 (8.15%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 0-1 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
