

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 60.56%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 18.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.49%) and 1-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-2 (5.07%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Union Berlin |
| 60.56% ( | 20.81% ( | 18.62% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.6% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.91% ( | 40.09% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.54% ( | 62.45% ( |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.17% ( | 12.83% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.83% ( | 39.17% ( |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.93% ( | 35.07% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.18% ( | 71.82% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Union Berlin |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 2-0 @ 9.49% 1-0 @ 9.24% ( 3-1 @ 6.8% ( 3-0 @ 6.49% ( 3-2 @ 3.57% ( 4-1 @ 3.49% ( 4-0 @ 3.33% ( 4-2 @ 1.83% ( 5-1 @ 1.44% ( 5-0 @ 1.37% ( Other @ 3.58% Total : 60.56% | 1-1 @ 9.68% ( 2-2 @ 5.21% 0-0 @ 4.5% ( 3-3 @ 1.25% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 20.81% | 1-2 @ 5.07% ( 0-1 @ 4.71% ( 0-2 @ 2.47% ( 2-3 @ 1.82% 1-3 @ 1.77% ( Other @ 2.78% Total : 18.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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