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Dortmund logo
Champions League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg
Feb 19, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
Sporting Lisbon

Dortmund
0 - 0
Sporting Lisbon

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Borussia Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: VfL Bochum 2-0 Dortmund
Saturday, February 15 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-2 Arouca
Saturday, February 15 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Sporting Lisbon (Dortmund win 5-2 on aggregate)

Sporting will not be able to sit back and absorb pressure given they trail by three goals, and they may concede several chances during counter-attacks. While Dortmund are unlikely to keep a clean sheet considering their poor form this campaign, the hosts will not care about the details of the second leg as long as they progress to the round of 16. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 42.61%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 34.42% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.5%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawSporting Lisbon
34.42% (-0.028000000000006 -0.03) 22.97% (-0.035999999999998 -0.04) 42.61% (0.062000000000005 0.06)
Both teams to score 64.9% (0.139 0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.81% (0.182 0.18)36.2% (-0.184 -0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.69% (0.2 0.2)58.31% (-0.203 -0.2)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.7% (0.070999999999998 0.07)21.3% (-0.074000000000002 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.77% (0.11 0.11)54.23% (-0.11199999999999 -0.11)
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.46% (0.099999999999994 0.1)17.54% (-0.102 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.93% (0.174 0.17)48.07% (-0.177 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 34.42%
    Sporting Lisbon 42.61%
    Draw 22.96%
Borussia DortmundDrawSporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 7.78% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-0 @ 5.78% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-0 @ 4.47% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.01% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 3.49% (0.015 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.3% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.55% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.35% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 3.7%
Total : 34.42%
1-1 @ 10.05% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-2 @ 6.77% (0.013 0.01)
0-0 @ 3.74% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-3 @ 2.03% (0.015 0.02)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 22.96%
1-2 @ 8.75% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-1 @ 6.5% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-2 @ 5.66% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
1-3 @ 5.08% (0.015 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.93% (0.02 0.02)
0-3 @ 3.28% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-4 @ 2.21% (0.014 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.71% (0.014 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.43% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 4.06%
Total : 42.61%

How you voted: Dortmund vs Sporting Lisbon

Borussia Dortmund
71.6%
Draw
14.4%
Sporting Lisbon
14.0%
222
Head to Head
Feb 11, 2025 8pm
Knockout Round Playoffs 1st Leg
Sporting Lisbon
0-3
Dortmund

Trincao (78')
Guirassy (60'), Gross (68'), Adeyemi (82')
Guirassy (66')
Nov 24, 2021 8pm
Group Stage
Sporting Lisbon
3-1
Dortmund
Goncalves (30', 39'), Porro (81')
Palhinha (55'), Coates (57'), Paulinho (74'), Nunes (74'), Porro (74'), Adan (90+8')
Malen (90+3')
Reus (74'), Zagadou (74'), Rose (79')
Can (74')
Sep 28, 2021 8pm
Group Stage
Dortmund
1-0
Sporting Lisbon
Malen (37')
Bellingham (42'), Hummels (59')

Nunes (42'), Neto (90')
Nov 2, 2016 7.45pm
Oct 18, 2016 7.45pm
Group Stage
Sporting Lisbon
1-2
Dortmund
Cesar (67')
Elias (54'), Schelotto (68'), Campbell (76'), Cesar (86')
Aubameyang (10'), Weigl (43')
Passlack (48'), Rode (76'), Burki (88')
rhs 2.0
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