Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 59.36%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 19.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 1-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.83%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 1-2 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Sturm Graz
59.36% ( 6.61)	21.15% ( -2.07)	19.48% ( -4.54)

Both teams to score 57% (

0.51)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.69% (

3.75)

40.3% (

-3.75)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.32% (

3.76)

62.67% (

-3.76)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.75% (

3.44)

13.25% (

-3.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.97% (

6.55)

40.02% (

-6.55)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.7% (

-2.1)

34.3% (

2.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29% (

-2.32)

71% (

2.32)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 59.36%

Sturm Graz 19.48%

Draw 21.15%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Sturm Graz
2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 9.28% ( 0.67) 1-0 @ 9.18% ( -0.44) 3-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.87) 3-0 @ 6.25% ( 1.12) 3-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.28) 4-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.78) 4-0 @ 3.16% ( 0.86) 4-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.33) 5-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.43) 5-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.46) Other @ 3.44% Total : 59.36%	1-1 @ 9.83% ( -1.07) 2-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.22) 0-0 @ 4.54% ( -0.83) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.15%	1-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.92) 0-1 @ 4.86% ( -1.23) 0-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.85) 2-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.46) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.38) Other @ 2.06% Total : 19.48%