Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Patronato had a probability of 30.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Patronato win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.