Almere City could suffer Eredivisie relegation on Wednesday when they welcome Europe-chasing Fortuna Sittard to Yanmar Stadion in the campaign's penultimate weekend.
The bottom-placed club, five points adrift of a relegation playoff place, must win their final two games and hope results elsewhere go in their favour to avoid the drop, while their opponents are involved in a seven-club battle to finish either eighth or ninth to qualify for the post-season European playoffs, aiming to secure a Conference League berth.
Match preview
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Almere's two-year run in the Eredivisie could come to an end on Wednesday if they fail to secure maximum points against Fortuna, an outcome that still does not guarantee survival for the Black Sheep.
With 20 points garnered from 32 games, Jeroen Rijsdijk's men can no longer escape the bottom two or relegation playoff spots, with 15th-placed NAC Breda (32 points) safe from the drop.
However, the bottom three positions could still change hands in the final two games, even if bottom-placed Almere enter the penultimate round three points behind second-bottom Waalwijk and five adrift of Willem II in the relegation playoff spot.
Having slipped to the bottom of the standings after round 32's results — Waalwijk defeated SC Heerenveen and Almere lost 3-0 to Sparta Rotterdam — a positive finish to the season seems bleak for the division's lowest scorers (21), whose lack of attacking prowess means they cannot rely on their defence either, as they have conceded 62 goals — with only Waalwijk (69) letting in more.
De Zwarte Schapen's prospects look even bleaker when their poor home form is examined, with supporters at Yanmar Stadion not witnessing a win since December's 3-0 success over Heerenveen.
Having earned just three points from the last available 21 at home, losing four during that stretch, Almere, who have been defeated in three of their last four Eredivisie fixtures, face a daunting challenge to retain their top-flight status after the midweek contest.
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Fortuna will feel confident about securing their 12th victory of the season to at least maintain their ninth-place position or leapfrog Heerenveen into eighth.
Go Ahead Eagles' KNVB Cup success means that both eighth and ninth positions guarantee a place in the European playoffs after the regular season, thereby creating a late-season scramble among seven teams — Heerenveen (40 points), Fortuna (39), Sparta Rotterdam (38), Groningen (38), Heracles (38), NEC (37) and PEC Zwolle (35).
Having risen to ninth after the previous round of matches, following Groningen's 3-0 loss against AZ Alkmaar and their 1-0 victory over safe NAC Breda, Danny Buijs's team aim to hold onto their position with strong results in their final two games.
However, achieving that will hinge on securing only their fourth away victory of the season and a second in 2025, with Fortuna's last away success a 2-1 win at Waalwijk in February.
Approaching the midweek round with just one victory on the road in seven attempts and none in their last three, losing two, the travelling fans may not expect much despite the fragile state of their last-placed hosts.
Nonetheless, optimistic supporters will cite FSC's five wins in the previous six meetings with their gameweek 36 opponents across all competitions, with one draw occurring in last season's corresponding fixture, as an indicator of their promising prospects in the penultimate fixture.
Team News
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Although Almere suffered no apparent injuries in their loss to Sparta Rotterdam, Hamdi Akujobi, Alex Carbonell and Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp will miss the match in the penultimate round.
The league's lowest goalscorers will rely on Junior Kadile (four goals) and Charles-Andreas Brym (three) to shoulder the attacking burden, as the hosts require maximum points to enhance their chances of survival entering the final gameweek.
While Almere have few absentees, Fortuna are sweating over a surfeit of players, highlighted by the expected absence of Alen Halilovic, Onur Demir, Samuel Bastien, Alessio da Cruz, Ramazan Bayram, Makan Aiko, Shawn Adewoye and Daley Sinkgraven.
Although Bojan Radulovic should lead the attack for Buijs's team, Kristoffer Peterson and Ezequiel Bullaude, who have scored seven and six goals respectively, are the away side's primary attacking threats.
Almere City possible starting lineup:
Bakker; Martins, Jacobs, Lawrence, Zagaritis; Haye, Tahiri; Kadile, Robinet, Jasim; Brym
Fortuna Sittard possible starting lineup:
Branderhorst; Pinto, Guth, Ottele, Dijks; Michut, Fosso; Sierhuis, Bullaude, Peterson; Radulovic
We say: Almere City 1-2 Fortuna Sittard
Although historical trends favour Fortuna against the bottom team, their away performances this season mean victory is far from guaranteed.
While a draw is possible, low-scoring Almere's inability to consistently find the net and their shaky defence mean the away side should be backed for a narrow victory.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
