Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 59.36%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 17.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
