Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 50.78%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 25.24% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.
