The opening of GEODIS Park in Tennessee will feature a rematch of the 2021 Eastern Conference Semi-Final of Major League Soccer when Nashville SC host the Philadelphia Union on Sunday.
In that encounter a year ago, the Boys in Gold failed to keep their composure from the spot, missing all four of their penalty kicks as the Union won 2-0 in a shootout, advancing to the third round.
Match preview
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A lengthy road trip for Nashville ended on a sour note, conceding with fewer than five minutes remaining in a 1-0 defeat to the Los Angeles Galaxy.
Being away from home for eight consecutive matches can be gruelling, so all things considered, manager Gary Smith will be pleased with what his players achieved, averaging 1.38 points per game in those eight road fixtures, which is an improvement from their 2021 mark of 1.24.
Nashville are learning first-hand how stiff the competition is in the Western Conference, currently sitting one point outside of the playoff picture after qualifying for the postseason in their first two campaigns in the Eastern Conference.
Back in 2021, the Boys in Gold did not lose a single match on home soil, so they should feel pretty good about their chances to climb up the standings with four of their six MLS fixtures in May taking place in the Volunteer State.
The club from the Music City are built to defend, with a fierce, well-organised backline who are intelligent and difficult to break down.
When there are points up for grabs this group rarely miss those opportunities, earning a result in 24 of their previous 30 regular-season encounters.
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With their historic winning run now over, it is time for the Union to start a new streak, according to manager Jim Curtin, who saw his team fail to hang onto a one-goal lead for a second consecutive week, drawing 1-1 with CF Montreal.
On the back-end, Curtin can count on a solid group of youngsters, who have matured quickly and are as positionally sound as any unit in the league, conceding the joint-fewest goals in MLS after eight games (five).
At the moment, Philly are averaging 2.13 points per game this season as they currently sit on top of the Eastern Conference standings.
It is no surprise to see them contending for another Supporters' Shield title, though it remains to be seen if this side have found an established number nine who can consistently bury those scoring opportunities that they create.
While they have often had the results go their way this year, the Union have not always finished off teams who were on the ropes, including last Saturday when Leon Flach made an errant pass that ruined a three-on-one situation which could have put them up 2-0.
Finding that killer instinct in the final third will be pivotal if Philly are to get back to winning ways, and they should feel entirely comfortable going on the road to begin the month of May.
Their next three matches in all competitions will be away from home, where they have won two of three fixtures so far in 2022.
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Team News
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Nashville forward Teal Bunbury is out with a right knee problem, while Robert Castellanos continues to recover from right ankle surgery.
Irakoze Donasiyano has a left thigh injury, and Dax McCarty missed their match last week for the birth of his second child.
In their first-ever match against the Galaxy, Anibal Godoy led the team with a 96.7 passing percentage, CJ Sapong surpassed 22,000 minutes played in his MLS regular season career and Joe Willis made a season-high five saves in a losing effort.
Walker Zimmerman captained the squad for the fourth time in 2022 in what was his 195th MLS regular-season appearance, Sean Davis earned his 180th cap and David Romney faced his former team for the first time since being traded by LA in 2019.
Philly centre-back Jack Elliott picked up his 130th regular season start a week ago, becoming the seventh player in club history to reach that mark, while Julian Carranza scored their only goal from the penalty spot, putting him in second on the team with three, one behind Daniel Gazdag.
Andre Blake is second in the league in terms of clean sheets with four, as his last one came in a 1-0 triumph against the Columbus Crew.
A year ago, Elliott and Jack McGlynn were the only players to convert their penalties in their playoff fixture against Nashville, as Blake stopped Godoy and Hany Mukhtar from 12 yards away.
Nashville SC possible starting lineup:
Willis; Romney, Zimmerman, Maher; Lovitz, Anunga, Godoy, Leal, Muyl; Sapong, Mukhtar
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Harriel, Glesnes, Elliott, Wagner; Martinez; Bedoya, Gazdag, McGlynn; Carranza, Burke
We say: Nashville SC 1-1 Philadelphia Union
These are two of the most pragmatic sides in MLS, who are rock solid at the back and do not take a lot of chances unless they need to.
Look for this to be another cagey affair between a pair of teams that would rather preserve a point in regular-season play instead of potentially losing one.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 43.65%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 31.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
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