Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cheltenham Town would win this match.
