Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 76.64%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 9.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.14%) and 2-1 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.33%), while for a Borussia Monchengladbach win it was 1-2 (2.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Borussia Monchengladbach |
| 76.64% ( | 14.04% ( | 9.32% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.18% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.81% ( | 29.19% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.79% ( | 50.21% ( |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.76% ( | 6.24% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 76.44% ( | 23.56% ( |
| Borussia Monchengladbach Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.85% ( | 41.14% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.31% ( | 77.68% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Borussia Monchengladbach |
| 2-0 @ 9.88% ( 3-0 @ 9.14% ( 2-1 @ 8.78% ( 3-1 @ 8.11% ( 1-0 @ 7.12% ( 4-0 @ 6.34% ( 4-1 @ 5.63% ( 3-2 @ 3.6% ( 5-0 @ 3.52% ( 5-1 @ 3.12% ( 4-2 @ 2.5% ( 6-0 @ 1.63% ( 6-1 @ 1.44% ( 5-2 @ 1.39% ( Other @ 4.46% Total : 76.64% | 1-1 @ 6.33% ( 2-2 @ 3.9% ( 0-0 @ 2.57% ( 3-3 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 14.04% | 1-2 @ 2.81% ( 0-1 @ 2.28% ( 2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0-2 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 2.07% Total : 9.32% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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