Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 46.8%. A win for Mongolia had a probability of 27.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Mongolia win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tajikistan would win this match.
