Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 23.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 2-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (6.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
