Toronto FC
MLS Playoffs | Regular Season
May 15, 2025 at 12.30am UK
BMO Field
FC Cincinnati

Toronto
0 - 1
Cincinnati


Bernardeschi (19'), Bernardeschi (19')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Denkey (18', 18')
Flores (24'), Flores (24'), Evander (32'), Evander (32'), Engel (90'), Engel (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions
Last Game: Toronto 2-0 DC United
Saturday, May 10 at 9.30pm in Major League Soccer

FC Cincinnati

All competitions
Last Game: Cincinnati 2-1 Austin
Sunday, May 11 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 37.71%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 37.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.89%) and 0-2 (5.76%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for FC Cincinnati in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for FC Cincinnati.

Result
TorontoDrawFC Cincinnati
37.6% (-0.044000000000004 -0.04)24.68% (0.018000000000001 0.02)37.71% (0.026000000000003 0.03)
Both teams to score 58.92% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.83% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)44.17% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.45% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)66.54% (0.079999999999998 0.08)
Toronto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.73% (-0.061000000000007 -0.06)23.27% (0.060000000000002 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.8% (-0.087000000000003 -0.09)57.19% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
FC Cincinnati Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.79% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)23.21% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.89% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)57.11% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Toronto 37.6%
    FC Cincinnati 37.71%
    Draw 24.68%
TorontoDrawFC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 8.39% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
1-0 @ 7.87% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.74% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 4.08% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.98% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.79% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 1.49% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.09% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.02% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 37.6%
1-1 @ 11.5% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.12% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.4% (0.019 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.45% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.68%
1-2 @ 8.4% (0.0029999999999983 0)
0-1 @ 7.89% (0.023 0.02)
0-2 @ 5.76% (0.013 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.09% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 2.98% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.81% (0.004 0)
1-4 @ 1.49% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 1.09% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-4 @ 1.02% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 37.71%

How you voted: Toronto vs Cincinnati

Toronto
20.0%
Draw
0.0%
FC Cincinnati
80.0%
10
Head to Head
Mar 9, 2025 12.30am
Cincinnati
2-0
Toronto
Denkey (73' pen.), Kubo (87')
Evander (66'), Powell (89')

Thompson (50')
> Preview
May 26, 2024 12.30am
Toronto
3-4
Cincinnati
Flores (25'), Murphy (63' og.), Insigne (85' pen.)
Flores (33'), Longstaff (60'), Long (78'), Insigne (90+8')
Orellano (53', 79'), Kelsy (55'), Santos (90+3')
Orellano (60'), Robinson (83'), Kelsy (90+10')
> Preview
Feb 25, 2024 7.30pm
Cincinnati
0-0
Toronto
Kubo (63')
Osorio (2'), Petretta (34'), O'Neill (54'), Johnson (82')
> Preview
Oct 1, 2023 12.30am
Toronto
2-3
Cincinnati
Osorio (39', 44')
Antonoglou (74'), Osei Owusu (84')
Vazquez (28', 35'), Boupendza (72')
> Preview
Jun 22, 2023 12.30am
Cincinnati
3-0
Toronto
Arias (35'), Acosta (54'), Badji (63')
Nwobodo (19'), Gaddis (41'), Halsey (82')

Petretta (25'), Bernardeschi (41')
> Preview