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Ligue 1

Lille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 32
May 4, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Marseille

Lille
1 - 1
Marseille

Fernandez Pardo (74')
Ismaily (65'), Alexsandro (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Gouiri (57')
Bennacer (29'), Garcia (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions
Last Game: Angers 0-2 Lille
Sunday, April 27 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Marseille

All competitions
Last Game: Marseille 4-1 Brest
Sunday, April 27 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 53.49%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 24.9% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.29%) and 1-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (6.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.

Result
LilleDrawMarseille
53.49% (0.162 0.16)21.61% (-0.291 -0.29)24.9% (0.132 0.13)
Both teams to score 63.24% (1.22 1.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.4% (1.538 1.54)35.6% (-1.534 -1.53)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.34% (1.679 1.68)57.66% (-1.677 -1.68)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.53% (0.57899999999999 0.58)13.47% (-0.577 -0.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.52% (1.146 1.15)40.48% (-1.143 -1.14)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.09% (0.92999999999999 0.93)26.92% (-0.928 -0.93)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.76% (1.201 1.2)62.24% (-1.199 -1.2)
Score Analysis
    Lille 53.49%
    Marseille 24.9%
    Draw 21.61%
LilleDrawMarseille
2-1 @ 9.56% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-0 @ 7.29% (-0.248 -0.25)
1-0 @ 7.27% (-0.408 -0.41)
3-1 @ 6.39% (0.087000000000001 0.09)
3-0 @ 4.87% (-0.061 -0.06)
3-2 @ 4.19% (0.164 0.16)
4-1 @ 3.2% (0.11 0.11)
4-0 @ 2.44% (0.022 0.02)
4-2 @ 2.1% (0.124 0.12)
5-1 @ 1.28% (0.07 0.07)
5-0 @ 0.98% (0.029 0.03)
4-3 @ 0.92% (0.077 0.08)
Other @ 3%
Total : 53.49%
1-1 @ 9.54% (-0.276 -0.28)
2-2 @ 6.27% (0.116 0.12)
0-0 @ 3.63% (-0.286 -0.29)
3-3 @ 1.83% (0.117 0.12)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 21.61%
1-2 @ 6.26% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-1 @ 4.76% (-0.242 -0.24)
0-2 @ 3.12% (-0.074 -0.07)
2-3 @ 2.75% (0.121 0.12)
1-3 @ 2.74% (0.065 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.37% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-4 @ 0.9% (0.062 0.06)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 24.9%

How you voted: Lille vs Marseille

Lille
68.7%
Draw
20.9%
Marseille
10.4%
67
Head to Head
Jan 14, 2025 8.10pm
Round of 32
Marseille
1-1
Lille
(Aggregate 1-1 | Lille win 4-3 on penalties)
Henrique (90+6')
Maupay (62')
Arnar Haraldsson (69')
Bakker (54'), Diakite (90')
> Preview
Dec 14, 2024 4pm
Gameweek 15
Marseille
1-1
Lille
Merlin (17')
Hojbjerg (86'), De Zerbi (90+5')
Lirola (90+5')
Diakite (87')
Diakite (63'), Andre (90+2'), Gomes (90+2')
> Preview
Apr 5, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 28
Lille
3-1
Marseille
David (54' pen.), Cabella (71'), Gudmundsson (84')
Santos (21')
Ismaily (81')
Harit (27'), Gigot (52'), Merlin (57'), Kondogbia (70'), Balerdi (77'), Veretout (90+6')
> Preview
Nov 4, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 11
Marseille
0-0
Lille
Harit (42'), Gigot (53')
Andre (27'), Bentaleb (70'), Yazici (73')
> Preview
May 20, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 36
Lille
2-1
Marseille
David (50' pen.), Bamba (72')
Andre (57'), Bamba (73'), Bayo (85')
Clauss (29')
Balerdi (37'), Rongier (55')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CParis Saint-GermainPSG34266292355784
2Marseille34205974472765
3MonacoMonaco34187963412261
4Nice34179866412560
5Lille34179852361660
6Lyon341761165461957
7StrasbourgStrasbourg34169956441257
8Lens34157124239352
9Brest34155145259-750
10Toulouse34119144443142
11Auxerre34119144851-342
12Rennes34132195150141
13NantesNantes34812143952-1336
14Angers34106183253-2136
15Le HavreLe Havre34104204071-3134
16Reims3489173347-1433
RSaint-EtienneSt Etienne3486203977-3830
RMontpellier HSCMontpellier3444262379-5616
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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