Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 62.52%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 15.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.21%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.42%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 0-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Portsmouth | Draw | Shrewsbury Town |
| 62.52% ( | 22.05% ( | 15.43% ( |
| Both teams to score 46.03% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.17% ( | 50.83% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.29% ( | 72.71% ( |
| Portsmouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.29% ( | 15.71% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.21% ( | 44.79% ( |
| Shrewsbury Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.61% ( | 45.38% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.76% ( | 81.24% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Portsmouth | Draw | Shrewsbury Town |
| 1-0 @ 13.19% 2-0 @ 12.21% 2-1 @ 9.65% 3-0 @ 7.53% ( 3-1 @ 5.95% ( 4-0 @ 3.49% ( 4-1 @ 2.75% ( 3-2 @ 2.35% ( 5-0 @ 1.29% ( 4-2 @ 1.09% ( 5-1 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 1.99% Total : 62.51% | 1-1 @ 10.42% 0-0 @ 7.13% ( 2-2 @ 3.81% Other @ 0.68% Total : 22.04% | 0-1 @ 5.63% ( 1-2 @ 4.12% ( 0-2 @ 2.23% ( 1-3 @ 1.09% ( 2-3 @ 1% Other @ 1.36% Total : 15.43% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 41 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 71 | 44 | 27 | 86 |
| 2 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 41 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 85 | 32 | 53 | 85 |
| 3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 42 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 73 | 35 | 38 | 84 |
| 4 | Barnsley | 41 | 25 | 6 | 10 | 74 | 38 | 36 | 81 |
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 41 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 55 | 32 | 23 | 71 |
| 6 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 42 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 70 |
| 7 | Derby CountyDerby | 42 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 69 |
| 8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 42 | 19 | 8 | 15 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 65 |
| 9 | Portsmouth | 42 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 56 | 46 | 10 | 64 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 41 | 16 | 8 | 17 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 56 |
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 42 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 62 | 59 | 3 | 55 |
| 12 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 41 | 12 | 19 | 10 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 55 |
| 13 | Exeter CityExeter | 42 | 14 | 11 | 17 | 59 | 56 | 3 | 53 |
| 14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 42 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 53 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 40 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 54 | 62 | -8 | 52 |
| 16 | Burton Albion | 40 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 54 | 76 | -22 | 48 |
| 17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 42 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 47 |
| 18 | Port Vale | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 46 |
| 19 | MK Dons | 42 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 40 | 60 | -20 | 43 |
| 20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 41 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 40 |
| 21 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 41 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 35 | 61 | -26 | 40 |
| 22 | Morecambe | 43 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 39 | 71 | -32 | 38 |
| 23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 41 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 38 |
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 42 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 81 | -51 | 26 |
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