We said: Birmingham City 2-0 Shrewsbury Town
None of Birmingham's third-tier foes have been able to earn victory at St Andrew's yet, and it is hard to imagine a crisis-stricken Shrewsbury bucking that trend on Saturday afternoon.
Even without Stansfield, Blues should be too strong for the Shrews, with the hosts looking to put the game to bed as quickly as possible ahead of a hectic April schedule.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 78.22%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 6.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.46%) and 3-0 (12.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 0-1 (3%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.