Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 41.84%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 34.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7%) and 0-2 (5.84%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 2-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Roma in this match.