Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Go Ahead Eagles win with a probability of 57.05%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 20.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Go Ahead Eagles win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Go Ahead Eagles would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 57.05% ( | 22.33% ( | 20.62% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.88% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56% ( | 44% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.61% ( | 66.38% ( |
| Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.8% ( | 15.2% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.17% ( | 43.83% ( |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.72% ( | 35.28% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.96% ( | 72.04% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 1-0 @ 10.1% ( 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 2-0 @ 9.52% ( 3-1 @ 6.23% ( 3-0 @ 5.98% ( 3-2 @ 3.24% ( 4-1 @ 2.93% ( 4-0 @ 2.82% ( 4-2 @ 1.53% ( 5-1 @ 1.11% ( 5-0 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.63% Total : 57.05% | 1-1 @ 10.52% 0-0 @ 5.36% ( 2-2 @ 5.16% ( 3-3 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.32% | 0-1 @ 5.59% ( 1-2 @ 5.48% ( 0-2 @ 2.91% ( 1-3 @ 1.9% ( 2-3 @ 1.79% ( 0-3 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 1.94% Total : 20.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 28 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 67 | 27 | 40 | 67 |
| 2 | Ajax | 28 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 76 | 28 | 48 | 59 |
| 3 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 28 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 75 | 33 | 42 | 59 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 53 | 32 | 21 | 54 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 48 | 22 | 26 | 51 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 49 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 42 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 28 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 35 |
| 10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 35 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 32 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 30 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 27 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 32 | 58 | -26 | 27 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 29 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 27 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 25 |
| 17 | Groningen | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 27 | 57 | -30 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 28 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 21 | 55 | -34 | 16 |
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