Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 59.12%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 20.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.53%) and 1-0 (8.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 5-5 was predicted with a 0% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | FC Utrecht | 
| 59.12% (  -0.01) | 20.66% (  0) | 20.21% (  0) | 
| Both teams to score 60.04% (  0) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 63.11% (  0) | 36.89% (  -0) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 40.93% (  0) | 59.06% (  -0) | 
| AZ Alkmaar Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 87.76% (  -0) | 12.23% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.06% (  -0) | 37.94% | 
| FC Utrecht Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 68.41% (  0) | 31.59% (  -0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.01% (  0) | 67.99% (  -0) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | FC Utrecht | 
| 2-1 @ 9.83% (  -0) 2-0 @ 8.53% (  -0) 1-0 @ 8.12% (  -0) 3-1 @ 6.88% (  -0) 3-0 @ 5.97% 3-2 @ 3.97% 4-1 @ 3.62% 4-0 @ 3.14% (  -0) 4-2 @ 2.08% 5-1 @ 1.52% 5-0 @ 1.32% Other @ 4.15% Total : 59.12% | 1-1 @ 9.36% 2-2 @ 5.66% (  0) 0-0 @ 3.86% 3-3 @ 1.52% (  0) Other @ 0.26% Total : 20.66% | 1-2 @ 5.39% 0-1 @ 4.45% 0-2 @ 2.57% 2-3 @ 2.18% (  0) 1-3 @ 2.07% 0-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.57% Total : 20.21% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 25 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 56 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 
| 2 | Ajax | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 70 | 25 | 45 | 55 | 
| 3 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 51 | 28 | 23 | 53 | 
| 4 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 25 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 66 | 30 | 36 | 52 | 
| 5 | FC Twente | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 44 | 
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 27 | 12 | 43 | 
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 38 | 
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 32 | 
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 25 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 31 | 
| 10 | Heerenveen | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 31 | 
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 29 | 
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 26 | 
| 13 | Vitesse | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 23 | 
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 55 | -26 | 23 | 
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 21 | 
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 25 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 60 | -39 | 20 | 
| 17 | Groningen | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 17 | 
| 18 | Cambuur | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 | 
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