Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 55.44%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 22.62% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.62%) and 2-0 (8.39%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 1-2 (5.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Twente | Draw | FC Utrecht |
| 55.44% ( | 21.94% ( | 22.62% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.14% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.28% ( | 39.72% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.92% ( | 62.08% ( |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.74% ( | 14.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.96% ( | 42.04% ( |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.98% ( | 31.02% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.67% ( | 67.33% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Twente | Draw | FC Utrecht |
| 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 1-0 @ 8.62% ( 2-0 @ 8.39% ( 3-1 @ 6.38% ( 3-0 @ 5.45% ( 3-2 @ 3.73% ( 4-1 @ 3.11% ( 4-0 @ 2.65% ( 4-2 @ 1.82% ( 5-1 @ 1.21% ( 5-0 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 3.25% Total : 55.44% | 1-1 @ 10.08% ( 2-2 @ 5.75% ( 0-0 @ 4.42% ( 3-3 @ 1.46% ( Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.94% | 1-2 @ 5.9% ( 0-1 @ 5.18% ( 0-2 @ 3.03% ( 1-3 @ 2.3% ( 2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0-3 @ 1.18% ( Other @ 2.77% Total : 22.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 29 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 70 | 27 | 43 | 70 |
| 2 | Ajax | 29 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 79 | 29 | 50 | 62 |
| 3 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 29 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 78 | 35 | 43 | 62 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 29 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 56 | 32 | 24 | 57 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 47 | 30 | 17 | 52 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 23 | 25 | 51 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 45 |
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 38 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 38 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 29 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 35 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 35 | 54 | -19 | 32 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 30 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 30 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 34 | 61 | -27 | 27 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 29 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 27 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 26 | 49 | -23 | 25 |
| 17 | Groningen | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 28 | 59 | -31 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 29 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 58 | -37 | 16 |
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