Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 37.03%. A win for Shanghai Shenhua had a probability of 36.14% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.12%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Shanghai Shenhua win was 0-1 (10.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.