Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 36.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.14%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 1-2 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stoke City | Draw | Leeds United |
| 38.74% ( | 25.1% ( | 36.15% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.34% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.83% ( | 46.17% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.53% ( | 68.46% ( |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.42% ( | 23.57% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.36% ( | 57.64% ( |
| Leeds United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.03% ( | 24.96% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.39% ( | 59.61% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Stoke City | Draw | Leeds United |
| 2-1 @ 8.53% ( 1-0 @ 8.5% ( 2-0 @ 6.14% ( 3-1 @ 4.11% ( 3-0 @ 2.96% ( 3-2 @ 2.85% ( 4-1 @ 1.48% ( 4-0 @ 1.07% ( 4-2 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.07% Total : 38.74% | 1-1 @ 11.8% ( 2-2 @ 5.92% ( 0-0 @ 5.89% ( 3-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.1% | 1-2 @ 8.19% ( 0-1 @ 8.17% ( 0-2 @ 5.67% ( 1-3 @ 3.79% ( 2-3 @ 2.74% ( 0-3 @ 2.62% ( 1-4 @ 1.31% ( 2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0-4 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 1.81% Total : 36.15% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 44 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 94 |
| 2 | Burnley | 44 | 26 | 16 | 2 | 61 | 15 | 46 | 94 |
| 3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 44 | 27 | 7 | 10 | 60 | 35 | 25 | 86 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 58 | 41 | 17 | 76 |
| 5 | Bristol City | 44 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 67 |
| 6 | Coventry CityCoventry | 44 | 19 | 9 | 16 | 62 | 57 | 5 | 66 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 63 |
| 8 | Millwall | 44 | 17 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 63 |
| 9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 44 | 18 | 8 | 18 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 62 |
| 10 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 44 | 14 | 18 | 12 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 60 |
| 11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 44 | 17 | 9 | 18 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 60 |
| 12 | Watford | 44 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 51 | 58 | -7 | 56 |
| 13 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 44 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 56 |
| 14 | Norwich CityNorwich | 44 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 67 | 66 | 1 | 53 |
| 15 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 44 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 53 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 44 | 14 | 10 | 20 | 56 | 69 | -13 | 52 |
| 17 | Stoke CityStoke | 44 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 50 |
| 18 | Preston North EndPreston | 44 | 10 | 19 | 15 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 49 |
| 19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 44 | 12 | 13 | 19 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 49 |
| 20 | Hull City | 44 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 48 |
| 21 | Derby CountyDerby | 44 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 47 | 56 | -9 | 46 |
| 22 | Luton TownLuton | 44 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 41 | 64 | -23 | 46 |
| 23 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 44 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 43 |
| 24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 44 | 10 | 13 | 21 | 48 | 85 | -37 | 43 |
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