

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for Watford had a probability of 26.05% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United | Draw | Watford | 
| 48.94% (  2.56) | 25.01% (  0.09) | 26.05% (  -2.66) | 
| Both teams to score 52.77% (  -2.37) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 50.06% (  -2.15) | 49.93% (  2.15) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 28.08% (  -1.95) | 71.92% (  1.94) | 
| Leeds United Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 79.57% (  0.22) | 20.43% (  -0.23) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.13% (  0.36) | 52.87% (  -0.36) | 
| Watford Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 66.32% (  -3.18) | 33.68% (  3.18) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.67% (  -3.62) | 70.33% (  3.61) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Leeds United | Draw | Watford | 
| 1-0 @ 10.92% (  0.98) 2-1 @ 9.44% (  0.14) 2-0 @ 8.68% (  0.84) 3-1 @ 5% (  0.11) 3-0 @ 4.59% (  0.47) 3-2 @ 2.72% (  -0.18) 4-1 @ 1.99% (  0.06) 4-0 @ 1.82% (  0.2) 4-2 @ 1.08% (  -0.06) Other @ 2.69% Total : 48.93% | 1-1 @ 11.89% (  0.1) 0-0 @ 6.88% (  0.58) 2-2 @ 5.14% (  -0.39) 3-3 @ 0.99% (  -0.16) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.01% | 0-1 @ 7.49% (  0.01) 1-2 @ 6.47% (  -0.53) 0-2 @ 4.07% (  -0.37) 1-3 @ 2.35% (  -0.43) 2-3 @ 1.87% (  -0.32) 0-3 @ 1.48% (  -0.28) Other @ 2.33% Total : 26.05% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leicester CityLeicester | 46 | 31 | 4 | 11 | 89 | 41 | 48 | 97 | 
| P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 92 | 57 | 35 | 96 | 
| 3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 46 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 81 | 43 | 38 | 90 | 
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 26 | 9 | 11 | 87 | 63 | 24 | 87 | 
| 5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 47 | 23 | 75 | 
| 6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 73 | 
| 7 | Hull City | 46 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 68 | 60 | 8 | 70 | 
| 8 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 71 | 62 | 9 | 69 | 
| 9 | Coventry CityCoventry | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 70 | 59 | 11 | 64 | 
| 10 | Preston North EndPreston | 46 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 63 | 
| 11 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 53 | 51 | 2 | 62 | 
| 12 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 62 | 
| 13 | Millwall | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 59 | 
| 14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 59 | 65 | -6 | 57 | 
| 15 | Watford | 46 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 61 | 61 | 0 | 56 | 
| 16 | Sunderland | 46 | 16 | 8 | 22 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 56 | 
| 17 | Stoke CityStoke | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 56 | 
| 18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 56 | 
| 19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 60 | 74 | -14 | 53 | 
| 20 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 46 | 15 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 53 | 
| 21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 51 | 
| R | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 50 | 65 | -15 | 50 | 
| R | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 46 | 9 | 18 | 19 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 45 | 
| R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 46 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 37 | 89 | -52 | 27 | 
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