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Bundesliga | Gameweek 32
May 3, 2025 at 2.30pm UK
Red Bull Arena
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RB Leipzig
3 - 3
Bayern

Sesko (11'), Klostermann (39'), Poulsen (90+4')
Raum (50'), Kampl (77'), Kampl (78'), Vermeeren (89')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Dier (62'), Olise (63'), Sane (83')
Dier (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Frankfurt 4-0 RB Leipzig
Saturday, April 26 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Mainz
Saturday, April 26 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 59.44%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 21.05% and a draw had a probability of 19.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.17%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (5.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
RB LeipzigDrawBayern Munich
21.05% (0.077000000000002 0.08)19.51% (-0.104 -0.1)59.44% (0.020000000000003 0.02)
Both teams to score 65.88% (0.539 0.54)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
70.04% (0.633 0.63)29.96% (-0.642 -0.64)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.85% (0.761 0.76)51.14% (-0.77 -0.77)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.23% (0.44 0.44)26.77% (-0.447 -0.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.95% (0.577 0.58)62.05% (-0.586 -0.59)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.97% (0.191 0.19)10.03% (-0.199 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.91% (0.44800000000001 0.45)33.09% (-0.456 -0.46)
Score Analysis
    RB Leipzig 21.05%
    Bayern Munich 59.44%
    Draw 19.51%
RB LeipzigDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 5.36% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-0 @ 3.54% (-0.085 -0.09)
3-2 @ 2.71% (0.05 0.05)
3-1 @ 2.36% (0.024 0.02)
2-0 @ 2.33% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-0 @ 1.02% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.73%
Total : 21.05%
1-1 @ 8.14% (-0.122 -0.12)
2-2 @ 6.17% (0.038 0.04)
0-0 @ 2.68% (-0.099 -0.1)
3-3 @ 2.08% (0.056 0.06)
Other @ 0.45%
Total : 19.51%
1-2 @ 9.36% (-0.06 -0.06)
1-3 @ 7.17% (0.015 0.01)
0-2 @ 7.1% (-0.136 -0.14)
0-1 @ 6.17% (-0.173 -0.17)
0-3 @ 5.44% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)
2-3 @ 4.73% (0.069 0.07)
1-4 @ 4.12% (0.044 0.04)
0-4 @ 3.13% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
2-4 @ 2.72% (0.063 0.06)
1-5 @ 1.9% (0.036 0.04)
0-5 @ 1.44% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
2-5 @ 1.25% (0.039 0.04)
3-4 @ 1.19% (0.042 0.04)
Other @ 3.72%
Total : 59.44%

How you voted: RB Leipzig vs Bayern

RB Leipzig
19.4%
Draw
26.4%
Bayern Munich
54.2%
72
Head to Head
Dec 20, 2024 7.30pm
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Bayern
5-1
RB Leipzig
Musiala (1'), Laimer (25'), Kimmich (36'), Sane (75'), Davies (78')
Upamecano (20'), Olise (56'), Kane (60'), Laimer (64'), Kimmich (82')
Sesko (2')
Schlager (26'), Rose (45+1'), Henrichs (59')
> Preview
Feb 24, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 23
Bayern
2-1
RB Leipzig
Kane (56', 90+1')
Pavlovic (37'), de Ligt (59'), Musiala (66')
Sesko (70')
Orban (41'), Schlager (67'), Simakan (78')
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Sep 30, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 6
RB Leipzig
2-2
Bayern
Openda (20'), Lukeba (26')
Simakan (54'), Lukeba (64')
Kane (57' pen.), Sane (70')
Kane (38'), Ulreich (44'), Upamecano (51'), Musiala (72'), Tel (81')
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Aug 12, 2023 7.45pm
Final
Bayern
0-3
RB Leipzig

Pavard (13'), Upamecano (34')
Olmo (3', 44', 68')
Olmo (71')
> Preview
May 20, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 33
Bayern
1-3
RB Leipzig
Gnabry (25')
Pavard (72')
Laimer (64'), Nkunku (76' pen.), Szoboszlai (86' pen.)
Gvardiol (68')
> Preview