Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirassol win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 34.08% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirassol win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (10.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mirassol would win this match.