

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 52.32%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.39% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.45%) and 2-0 (5.47%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 52.32% ( | 20.29% ( | 27.39% ( |
| Both teams to score 70.95% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.32% ( | 26.67% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.92% ( | 47.07% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.21% ( | 10.78% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 65.19% ( | 34.8% ( |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.52% ( | 20.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.06% ( | 52.93% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 8.68% ( 3-1 @ 6.45% ( 2-0 @ 5.47% ( 3-2 @ 5.11% ( 1-0 @ 4.92% ( 3-0 @ 4.06% ( 4-1 @ 3.59% ( 4-2 @ 2.85% ( 4-0 @ 2.26% ( 5-1 @ 1.6% ( 4-3 @ 1.51% ( 5-2 @ 1.27% ( 5-0 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 3.55% Total : 52.32% | 1-1 @ 7.8% ( 2-2 @ 6.89% ( 3-3 @ 2.7% ( 0-0 @ 2.21% ( Other @ 0.69% Total : 20.29% | 1-2 @ 6.19% ( 2-3 @ 3.64% ( 0-1 @ 3.5% ( 1-3 @ 3.27% ( 0-2 @ 2.78% ( 0-3 @ 1.47% ( 2-4 @ 1.44% ( 1-4 @ 1.3% ( 3-4 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 2.73% Total : 27.39% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Auckland FC | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 39 | 20 | 19 | 42 |
| 2 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 46 | 30 | 16 | 38 |
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 34 |
| 4 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 34 |
| 5 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 33 |
| 6 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 40 | 3 | 33 |
| 7 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 30 |
| 8 | Macarthur | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 41 | 37 | 4 | 29 |
| 9 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 26 |
| 10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 22 |
| 11 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 20 |
| 12 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 11 |
| 13 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 21 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 48 | -34 | 11 |
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