Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 58.08%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Como had a probability of 19.54%.

The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a Como win it was 0-1 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Modena would win this match.