We said: Lazio 2-1 Genoa
While some smart recruitment means Genoa should not be as toothless as in recent top-flight campaigns, they lack the firepower to fully test a Lazio side that regularly churns out results on home soil. The visitors will start with back-to-back defeats, then, while their hosts make up for an aberration down at Via del Mare.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 47.64%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 25.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.62%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (8.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
-0.36) 
0.09) 
