A defeat for RB Leipzig at Red Bull Arena on Saturday against visitors Holstein Kiel could see them drop out of the Bundesliga's final Champions League spot.
Die Roten Bullen are fourth with 48 points after beating Wolfsburg 3-2 on April 11, and they will be expected to defeat last-placed Holstein Kiel, who are in 18th place with just 18 points following their 2-1 loss against St Pauli last Saturday.
Match preview
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Leipzig scored three long-range strikes to take a three-goal lead by the 49th minute against Wolfsburg, but the final stages of the game were tense after the Wolves scored their second goal 15 minutes from time.
The hosts have not kept a clean sheet for four matches and conceded seven times in that period while scoring on six occasions.
Interim manager Zsolt Low will be nervously looking at the result of fifth-placed Mainz 05, who are just two points behind and play Wolfsburg at the same time his team take on Holstein Kiel.
Low's side come into the clash off the back of two victories, but they did lose three and draw one of their prior five.
Die Roten Bullen's home record remains excellent, with Leipzig winning seven of their last 10, succumbing to defeat just once.
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Holstein Kiel can have no complaints with their loss at the hands of St Pauli given they struggled to deal with the threat they posed from set pieces, facing over one xG from dead ball situations.
Having conceded 15 goals from set pieces in the league, only VfL Bochum have a worse record in the top flight (17), though no team has faced more shots than Saturday's visitors (155) from set pieces.
The Storks lost 2-0 against Leipzig in their first Bundesliga clash this term on December 7, though they can perhaps count themselves unfortunate considering Die Roten Bullen created few opportunities in the final third, with their second-half penalty significantly inflating their xG figure to 1.59.
Boss Marcel Rapp will know that a defeat would guarantee a bottom-three finish, but with just four games remaining and four points separating them from 16th-placed Heidenheim, who occupy the relegation playoff spot, a draw would do little in their fight for survival.
However, Holstein Kiel have won just one of their past 12 games – losing seven – and they have also been beaten in 10 of their last 15 away fixtures while winning once.
Team News
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Leipzig attacker Xavi Simons scored twice last time out but picked up a yellow card and is suspended, joining injured winger Antonio Nusa on the sidelines, so perhaps strikers Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda will be supported by Christoph Baumgartner and Ridle Baku.
With midfielder Xaver Schlager ruled out, expect Arthur Vermeeren and Nicolas Seiwald to partner each other in front of a back four.
Low may be forced to keep centre-back Castello Lukeba at left-back given the continued absences of Benjamin Henrichs and David Raum, with El Chadaille Bitshiabu and Willi Orban likely to continue in central defence.
Holstein Kiel are beset by injury issues, and they will not be able to select defenders Colin Kleine-Bekel, Ivan Nekic and Patrick Erras.
Rapp may field Timo Becker, David Zec and Marco Komenda in a back three on Saturday, though with midfielder Lewis Holtby not scheduled to return until early May, the trio could be protected by Magnus Knudsen, Armin Gigovic and Nicolai Remberg.
In the forward line, Alexander Bernhardsson and Shuto Machino are the most probable candidates to feature considering Andu Yobel Kelati and Benedikt Pichler will play no part due to injury.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Nedeljkovic, Orban, Bitshiabu, Lukeba; Baku, Seiwald, Vermeeren, Baumgartner; Sesko, Openda
Holstein Kiel possible starting lineup:
Dahne; Becker, Zec, Komenda; Rosenboom, Knudsen, Gigovic, Remberg, Tolkin; Bernhardsson, Machino
We say: RB Leipzig 1-0 Holstein Kiel
Leipzig's ability to create chances could be impacted by the absence of Simons, who has been key to their attacking displays.
However, it is difficult to see Holstein Kiel taking advantage given their poor form, and they could be punished during counter-attacks if they push forward to try and claim all three points.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
