Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 39.22%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 37.59% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.34%) and 2-0 (5.22%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.