Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 42.24%. A win for Puebla had a probability of 30.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Puebla win was 0-1 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
