Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 47.26%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Sutton United had a probability of 25.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.69%), while for a Sutton United win it was 0-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stevenage | Draw | Sutton United |
| 47.26% ( | 27.12% ( | 25.61% ( |
| Both teams to score 46.25% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.74% ( | 58.26% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.11% ( | 78.89% ( |
| Stevenage Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.31% ( | 24.69% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.77% ( | 59.23% ( |
| Sutton United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.41% ( | 38.59% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.67% ( | 75.33% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Stevenage | Draw | Sutton United |
| 1-0 @ 13.32% ( 2-0 @ 9.32% ( 2-1 @ 8.88% ( 3-0 @ 4.35% ( 3-1 @ 4.14% ( 3-2 @ 1.97% ( 4-0 @ 1.52% ( 4-1 @ 1.45% ( Other @ 2.33% Total : 47.26% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0-0 @ 9.53% ( 2-2 @ 4.23% ( Other @ 0.68% Total : 27.12% | 0-1 @ 9.07% ( 1-2 @ 6.04% ( 0-2 @ 4.32% ( 1-3 @ 1.92% 0-3 @ 1.37% ( 2-3 @ 1.34% ( Other @ 1.55% Total : 25.61% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 36 | 17 | 19 | 57 |
| 2 | Stevenage | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 55 |
| 3 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 51 |
| 4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 49 |
| 5 | Salford City | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Swindon TownSwindon | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 42 |
| 8 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 41 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | Stockport CountyStockport | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 39 |
| 11 | AFC Wimbledon | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 39 |
| 12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 38 |
| 14 | Walsall | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 37 |
| 15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 | Grimsby Town | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 33 |
| 17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 31 |
| 18 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 30 |
| 19 | Newport CountyNewport | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 25 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 24 |
| 22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 22 |
| 23 | Gillingham | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 31 | -17 | 21 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
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