We said: Rotherham United 1-1 Crawley Town
While the hosts certainly boast more quality than the visitors, they have failed to make that count so far this season, while Crawley Town head to the New York Stadium with fresh optimism back under the management of Scott Lindsey.
We see them leaving South Yorkshire with at least a point at the weekend, albeit with only a victory sufficing in their bid to move closer to safety.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rotherham United win with a probability of 56.53%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rotherham United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.36%) and 2-0 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 1-2 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.