

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 40.57%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 34.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 40.57% ( | 24.84% ( | 34.58% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.01% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.79% ( | 45.21% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.45% ( | 67.55% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.77% ( | 22.23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.34% ( | 55.66% ( |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.59% ( | 25.41% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.77% ( | 60.23% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2-1 @ 8.75% ( 1-0 @ 8.5% ( 2-0 @ 6.39% ( 3-1 @ 4.39% ( 3-0 @ 3.2% ( 3-2 @ 3% ( 4-1 @ 1.65% ( 4-0 @ 1.2% ( 4-2 @ 1.13% ( Other @ 2.37% Total : 40.58% | 1-1 @ 11.63% ( 2-2 @ 5.99% ( 0-0 @ 5.65% ( 3-3 @ 1.37% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.84% | 1-2 @ 7.97% ( 0-1 @ 7.74% ( 0-2 @ 5.3% ( 1-3 @ 3.64% ( 2-3 @ 2.74% ( 0-3 @ 2.42% ( 1-4 @ 1.25% ( 2-4 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.59% Total : 34.58% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 |
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 |
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 |
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 |
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 |
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 |
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 |
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 |
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